Budget 2013: 10 things to expect from Economic Survey
1. Economic growth: Once considered a rising star in Asia, the Indian economy has lost its shine in recent years. Preliminary estimates released earlier this month by the Central Statistics Office of the government showed growth dwindled to an annual 5 per cent rate in the current fiscal year to March, sharply lower than the 7.6 per cent estimate earlier. The country's gross domestic product growth is expected to have slowed to 5 per cent in the quarter ended December partly due to a struggling agriculture sector, having already struck a near three-year low of 5.3 per cent in the previous quarter, according to a Reuters poll.
2. Industrial production and exports: In further damning evidence of the India growth story gone awry, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) missed analyst estimates of 1.2 per cent growth by a wide margin, shrinking for the second consecutive month in December by 0.6 per cent. In terms of industries, 12 out of the 22 industry groups in the manufacturing sector, which constitutes about 76 per cent of industrial production, contracted in December 2012 compared to December 2011.
3. Taxes: The Survey will likely pitch for an early implementation of the goods and services tax (GST) and the Direct Taxes Code (DTC) in order to expand the tax base and raise the tax-gross domestic product ratio.
4. Inflation: While inflation based on wholesale price index declined to 6.62 per cent in January, the rate of price increase at the retail level - as measured by the Consumer Price Index - is still in double digits. The Reserve Bank of India cut its key policy rate for the first time in nine months in January, but struck a cautious note on further easing as it waits to see how the government's budget aims to bring a bloated fiscal deficit under control.
5. Subsidy bill: Government subsidies have often been blamed for encouraging economic inefficiency. While the government had budgeted more than Rs. 43,000 crore towards oil subsidy for the current fiscal year, it has sought Parliament approval for an additional Rs. 28,500 crore.
6. Gold imports and current account deficit: High oil and gold imports are impacting the current account deficit, which widened to 5.4 per cent of the GDP in the July-September quarter. Current account deficit, the difference between inflow and outflow of foreign currency, was 4.2 per cent in 2011-12.
7. Fiscal deficit: Finance Minister P Chidambaram has committed to reducing the fiscal deficit to 4.8 per cent of GDP in 2013-14, but it won't be an easy task given the rising expenditure and subdued growth in revenue collection. The finance minister had a bruising battle with cabinet colleagues in the run-up to the Budget he unveils tomorrow, rebuffing demands for pre-election spending and insisting on austerity to shore up investors' faith in a troubled economy.
8. Decelerating growth and RBI's monetary policy: New Delhi plans to cut public spending by up to 10 per cent in the fiscal year starting in April, yet RBI officials fear that cutting capital spending on projects with strong multiplier effects like building roads and bridges, won't help revive growth, which is seen as a priority if the economy is to avoid a downward spiral. The RBI cut rates in late January, but refrained from spelling out further rate cuts due to concerns about the country's current account deficit and inflation flaring again in the latter half of 2013.
9. Global development and the Indian economy: Many of India's economic problems are being blamed on the slowdown in the global economy. Factory output has also been hurt by relatively weak global trade, especially from Europe, India's largest trade partner, with the debt-ravaged euro zone economy expected to contract again this year.
10. European Union: India and the 27-nation EU bloc have been negotiating a free-trade agreement since June 2007, and are aiming to conclude talks soon.
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